Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Analysis: Cheese versus Steel

Steel is naturally stronger than cheese...except, perhaps, on the gridiron.
Super Bowl XLV will put this theory to the test on February 5, 2011 when the AFC Champion Pittsburgh Steelers square off against the NFC Champion Green Bay Packers.
The Steelers may have their hands full with the Packers, who are poised to give the current "Steel Curtain" D all it can handle.
The Steelers, don't forget, blew a 24-0 lead to the NY Jets last weekend, having given up 19 unanswered points. Poor play calling in the Red Zone at the end of the game doomed the Jets; not the Steelers' D.
Pittsburgh was also in the hole 21-7 at halftime to the Baltimore Ravens two weeks ago before coming back and then holding on to win. The Steelers made some costly, glaring mistakes against the Ravens' defense early in the game. Had it not been for a complete 180 by the team in the second half, it could have turned into a blow-out in favor of Baltimore. Pittsburgh is inconsistent so far in the playoffs. It plays well at times, and at other times it doesn't.
Sure, the same could be said about Green Bay or any other team for that matter. But the Packers right now are gelling together. There's a hunger with this young team that I saw in the 1997 Broncos, 1999 Ravens, the 2000 Rams, 2001 Patriots, the 2002 Buccaneers, the 2005 Steelers, the 2007 Giants, and the 2009 Saints.
I don't get the same sense of hunger from the Steelers, many of whom have been to the Big Show before, and this is just another day at the office for them. Remember the 2007 Patriots, the team that was undefeated going into the SB against the Giants? The game was supposed to be just another day at the office for New England, just another notch in the win column. But that team completely underestimated the NYG-men, dismissing them as the last speed bump in the road to perfection.
Granted, Pittsburgh doesn't appear to be as arrogant as the 2007 Patriots were; but it can easily overlook Green Bay as just another lucky 10-6 No. 6 seed...which Pittsburgh was in 2005 when it won it all. The teams that get hot at the end of the regular season and/or win when it matters most are the most dangerous teams entering the playoffs. Ergo, The Pack.
Having said all of that, Green Bay will certainly have its hands full with the Steelers. On offense, Pitt offers a dual RB threat, as well as lethal weapons on the flank and under center. Pitt has a well-balanced offense quite comparable, if not superior, to Green Bay's O. If the Steelers start eating up chunks of yardage running the football, then they can dominate time of possession and field position, even if the game turns out to be highly defensive with little scoring. Green Bay Linebackers Coach Kevin Greene and his D, led by Matthews and Raji et al, had better bring their A game against Pitt's RBs and Roethlisberger.
On defense, the Steelers are just plain frightening the way they aggressively attack the pocket. Rodgers' one "Achilles Heel" is that he is a much less effective pocket passer than he is an out-of-pocket passer. The Bears flustered him a little in the second half by attacking the pocket and forcing throws from Rodgers. The key for GB will be its O line. It has done a pretty good job so far giving Rodgers time to throw or time to move out of the pocket to find an open receiver. But it has made its share of mistakes, and Rodgers has taken his share of beatings this season, too. The Pack may be well advised to utilize Driver, Kuhn and even Starks as extra blockers on longer routes, which require more time for Rodgers to set up and throw. If anything, blockers should do everything they can to give Rodgers an opening so that he can escape the pocket, because I think the Packers' O line may have a difficult time keeping the Steelers' pass rush at bay for too long. If Pitt ends up flushing Rodgers out of the pocket more often than not, rather than containing him in there and collapsing it, then it risks getting picked apart by a guy who throws better and makes better passing decisions on the run.
My greatest concern about Green Bay's offense is the inconsistency of its receiving corps. I've seen these guys complete some difficult pass plays, but then drop some gimmies. Against Pittsburgh, the Packers will need to be sure to earn their money by catching the gimmie passes.
With an aggressive D line like Pitt's, I wonder if the Packers might do well to draw in a lot of short 5-10 yard pass plays to guys like Kuhn and Driver? As quickly as Pitt gets off the line, the shorter and quicker the passes, probably the better. Screens should work well against a D that zeroes in on the pocket. That's not to say that McCarthy shouldn't keep a few "aces" up his sleeve in the event that the run game finds some success early on. A couple of play action fakes on second and short; maybe a naked boot leg toward the sideline on third and two; and some quick slant routes over the middle to Jordy Nelson when Pitt is looking for a screen pass to Kuhn or a short out to Driver.
And, of course, always keep them guessing on special teams. You never know when GB will try an on-side kick at kick-off.
Most important of all...HOLD ON TO THE FOOTBALL. At all costs. In a defensive ball game, as I suspect this one to be, turnovers are killers. It has long been said that defenses win championships. I don't see this game being any different. Coach Greene's D Machine should attack the football as often as it does the ball carriers. Go after the strip whenever practical. Be aggressive, but not so much so that you show your hand before it’s called.
A level head will go a long way toward defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers. Too much adrenaline, too much emotion could spell trouble for the youthful and largely inexperienced Pack.
I have a gut feeling about Green Bay...not just because I'm a Packer Backer, either. History is often on the side of the hungriest team...And the Packers are starving for a championship right now.

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