Countdown to The Day

One week from today, America should have a pretty good idea which presidential candidates will be on the November ballot.
Next week is Super Tuesday, or primary election day for more than half of the states with delegates still up for grabs on the way to national party conventions this summer. For all intents and purposes, the candidates who come away with the most delegates from Super Tuesday primaries will likely go on to receive their party nominations and be one step away from the White House.
On the republican ballot, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and U.S. Senator John McCain, R-AZ, appear to be running neck and neck down the stretch to Super Tuesday. McCain may have won the Florida primary today, but he hasn't won the nomination yet. Romney is right on his heels. So for McCain, a former Vietnam POW, to claim that his win in the Sunshine State should give him extra momentum going into Super Tuesday is probably an overstatement.
Rather, the importance of McCain’s Florida victory rests in the delegates he received. This contest was winner-take-all. Unfortunately for Romney, he now trails McCain in the number of delegates needed to obtain the republican nomination. The fate of his campaign now rests in the hands of voters on Super Tuesday.
But neither count Romney out yet, nor give the McCain campaign more credit than it has earned at this point. Should Romney emerge victorious Tuesday, then he—not McCain—will be in the driver’s seat; and vice-versa.
My forecast is for Mitt Romney to come away with the most delegates on Super Tuesday. There are many conservative states whose primaries are scheduled for next week. Romney is, by far, the more conservative of the two candidates. Furthermore, many republican voters, like many democrats, are tired of the same old thing. John McCain represents the old guard that has absorbed the ire of republican voters in recent years. Romney, by contrast, is a Washington, D.C. outsider with a lot of private sector experience in business. If anyone can develop policies to strengthen our economy, it’s Mitt Romney. Moreover, Romney is a former state governor. Candidates with gubernatorial experience historically do better in presidential elections. Consider Lyndon B. Johnson, Ronald Reagan, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush as recent examples of chief executives who were also former state governors.
Should Romney end up securing the republican nomination, then he stands a solid chance against the democrat nominee.
I honestly do not believe that John McCain has what it takes to compete neither with the charisma and contagious optimism of Barack Obama, nor the ruthless political nature of Hillary Clinton, who will pull no punches against her republican rival.
Romney, on the other hand, has the charisma, charm and presidential swagger to literally eclipse Hillary Clinton, who does not enjoy the same likeability and favor that her husband did. Romney also has the wits to match Obama with; although I have a feeling that if Obama wins the democratic nomination, he may well beat the republican nominee, because of this whole “change” movement that appears to appeal to and resonate with undecided and swing voters.
Speaking of the democrats, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton won a meaningless primary in Florida, whose delegates were not awarded because it had moved its primary up before Super Tuesday and upset the national democrat party. Florida, like Michigan, had its delegates stripped as punishment. As a result, Clinton did not win any delegates today. Instead, she won what she considered to be a moral victory for herself following Illinois Sen. Barack Obama’s runaway win in South Carolina last week.
Currently, Clinton leads in the number of delegates needed to secure the party nomination. But with South Carolina’s results, her lead has narrowed considerably. This makes Super Tuesday all the more important for Clinton, who is in the fight of her life to continue on her quest as a so-called candidate of “destiny.”
If Obama manages to close the delegate gap even further after Tuesday, then I’d say he will probably end up snatching the party nod right out from under Hillary’s nose. Several key democrats have endorsed Barack Obama, and not Hillary Clinton, for president. Among them are Massachusetts Sens. John Kerry and Ted Kennedy, as well as Vermont Sen. Patrick Lahey. These are the good old boys, the movers and shakers who set the party agenda. They represent the democrat base; the party mainstream. And their endorsements carry a lot of weight. Obama has them; Hillary does not.
However, should Clinton instead manage to break the race wide open Tuesday, then those “movers and shakers” endorsing Obama may just as well change their minds.
Frankly, the republicans stand a better chance of winning the White House in November if they face Hillary Clinton. There are enough undecided and swing voters out there with negative perceptions of Hillary to render votes against her more significant than votes for her opponent.
Obama, on the other hand, will prove to be a much tougher nut to crack should he win the party nomination. He’s smooth and statesman-like in his approach. People are drawn to his optimism, his charm and his charisma the way bees are drawn to honey. The republicans will have a difficult time competing with Obama’s energy, enthusiasm and positive media image.
My personal feeling is that if Barack Obama wins the nomination, then he will in all likelihood go on to win the White House, because there is enough negative perceptions out there about Mormons to deprive Mitt Romney of much needed votes against a formidable opponent like Obama.
But there are more than enough “Anybody But Hillary” bumper stickers circulating around to make Romney’s religion a moot point.