Iowa votes have been reaped

Congratulations to Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee, who won their respective party caucuses in Iowa yesterday. They’ve cleared the first hurdle and rounded the first turn of the race with the momentum and the lead. But this race is a long one—and far from over. There are many more hurdles yet to be cleared, millions more votes to get and 49 more states to win.
While an Iowa victory is indeed an impressive feather in the cap, it is not equivalent to securing the party nomination. The presidential primary season is a long one, and the national conventions are still about seven months away; meaning that there is plenty of time for Obama and Huckabee to fade in the race and give up the lead down the stretch.
The morning after Iowa, the future looks bright for Obama and Huckabee, who have media prognosticators abuzz with their forecasts for New Hampshire, South Carolina, and other primaries. All of a sudden, Obama can beat Hillary, while Huckabee is a heavyweight contender.
But I say again: We have only seen the opening series of the first quarter, the top of the first inning, and the first leg of the race. There is still a lot of ballgame left and a long way to go to the finish line. I continue to stand by my earlier predictions that Hillary and either Giuliani or Romney will be the party nominees, because they have the political machines behind them. The Democratic and Republican national committees have already settled on their candidates. The primaries are mere formalities.
Some pundits are saying that Huckabee’s Iowa victory will open the door for John McCain to become the republican front-runner, because he apparently holds a sizable poll lead in New Hampshire, the primary for which is just days away. The prognosticators are also suggesting that McCain could wrestle Michigan away from Mitt Romney and win South Carolina, Florida and Nevada. At this point, only South Carolina appears to be favorable ground for Huckabee, because it is part of America’s “Bible Belt.” The former Arkansas governor and Baptist minister probably won’t do as well in the more liberal and secular Northeast, Florida, and the industrial Great Lakes region. Nevada, being more libertarian, is not really Huckabee country, either. And don’t get me started on the “progressive” Pacific Northwest.
I think Mike Huckabee had better savor his Iowa victory as long as he can, because he won’t get many more.
But I’m not ready to jump on the McCain bandwagon. At 72, the white-haired and balding former Vietnam POW and longtime U.S. Senator is representative of the old republican stereotype of stuffed shirt, country club types. He’s a senate dinosaur who is probably making his last attempt at the presidency. His maverick ways have led him astray of the party at times, and as a result, has hurt his standing among the Grand Old Party leadership. Bob Dole was given the nod in 1996 because he remained faithful to the party through thick and thin during his long tenure in the senate. McCain does not enjoy the same favor.
Furthermore, McCain lacks the poise, charisma and savvy needed to defeat neither the Clinton Machine, nor the “O Factor.” These are virtues that both Romney and Giuliani possess. One must become a fox to catch a fox.
The Obama Factor is much more realistic for the democrats than Huckabee is for the republicans. The junior senator from Illinois smote Hillary Clinton in Iowa by nearly 10 percentage points. Even John Edwards received more votes than “the smartest woman in the world.”
Unlike Huckabee, Obama enjoys a growing and widespread appeal across party lines and among undecided swing voters. He appeals to secular as well as religious voters. His energy, youth, enthusiasm and inspirational style could realistically throw a wrench into the Clinton Machine’s plans for a return to the White House. Unlike Hillary, Obama represents real change from the status quo, which for the past 20 years has either been a Bush or a Clinton. Furthermore, he is fresh, likable and personable—three things that Hillary just is not. Her husband, on the other hand, possessed these qualities in 1992. And just look back at what happened.
But the one “X factor” that the “O Factor” needs to be weary of is the effective reach of the Clinton Machine. Can enough dirt be dug up on Obama to create doubt and/or discontent among current supporters and remaining voters that would put Hillary back in the driver’s seat? Right now, Obama is at the wheel and Hillary is having to just go along for the ride.
New Hampshire will be key for Hillary, who has strong support in her Northeast home state of New York. She should win New Hampshire by a mile. But will she? Is the “O Factor” really catching fire so quickly that it could snatch the Northeast right out from under Hillary’s nose? I guess we will know in a few days.
If Hillary loses New Hampshire, then I believe she will lose the party nomination—unless the “O Factor” really screws up or the Clinton Machine is successful in screwing him over. South Carolina, traditionally conservative even among democrats, will not support Hillary. This primary will go to either Obama or Edwards, who should also win Michigan due to his union endorsements. This is assuming Edwards hangs in the race that long. For all I know, he could cash in his chips after New Hampshire, at which he will probably come in a distant third.
Hillary may win Nevada, Florida and California. But by the time these come around, will it really matter?
In spite of all this analysis, though, I still believe the Machines will prevail. Romney and Hillary are my predictions for New Hampshire.