Rudy, what ha-happened?

One year ago, former New York City Mayor Rudolph “Rudy” Giuliani was the front-runner in the republican field of presidential hopefuls. He was the candidate to beat.
Today we learn that he is on the verge of dropping out of the race for the republican presidential nomination. He may even announce an end to his campaign before California’s presidential primary on Super Tuesday, February 5.
So, what happened to Rudy’s campaign and the momentum he was carrying with him most of last year? Where did it all go?
Unfortunately, the Giuliani campaign appeared to downplay many of the so-called lesser primaries held earlier this month. As a result, the impact these contests had on subsequent primaries was also underestimated by the Rudy team.
After the Iowa Caucus, Rudy Giuliani became just another horse in the race. He was not the one everybody else was watching, and instead grew more obscure.
Rather, the attention shifted dramatically to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. A week later was New Hampshire, where U.S. Senator John McCain of Arizona scored big. Suddenly, the press began reporting the republican race as a three-way that did not include Rudy Giuliani. Then there was Nevada and South Carolina, where Rudy was no where to be found.
In fact, Giuliani purposefully missed the last two state contests in order to focus squarely on Florida, whose delegates were winner-take-all. The Rudy team apparently calculated that a Florida win would put him back in the thick of the race. But Giuliani did not bank on how effective media coverage from these earlier contests would be on Florida voters. By the time of the Florida primary, everyone knew about Mitt Romney, John McCain and Mike Huckabee. But few really knew who Rudy Giuliani was or where he stood.
Rudy did a lot of campaigning in 2007. But most people operate on short-term or immediate recall, as opposed to long-term memory. Few people are going to remember what Giuliani said about his campaign in 2007. The vast majority of voters are only going to remember yesterday and today.
That is where Rudy Giuliani went wrong in the first place. He thought by coming out of the gate first, he would set the pace and be in control of the race. Evidently, Rudy doesn’t spend much time at the track, because the first horse out of the chute doesn’t always win. And pace cars never win at all.
Second, Rudy underestimated the power of the press and its coverage of the so-called lesser primaries, which Rudy mistakenly considered insignificant compared to the larger, more populated states with more delegates at stake. I think this mistake was more than a miscalculation. It was an insult to all the smaller states, whose voters were summarily dismissed and felt disrespected by the Rudy campaign. In fact, he did little to no campaigning in earlier primaries on purpose, so that he could focus on Florida and all of the Super Tuesday primaries—namely California.
Third, Rudy did a very poor job of marketing himself once the primary season kicked off. He did most of that in 2007 before things really mattered. He kept a low profile the first three weeks of 2008. That is like a retailer not advertising for Christmas sales until the last weekend of the holiday shopping season. Big mistake.
The fact that Rudy will be dropping out of the race for president is unfortunate not just for him, but for the republicans. While he is far too liberal for me personally, I think he would have made a formidable opponent for the democratic nominee. He’s a tough, gutsy guy who is not afraid to take what he dishes out. Rudy has proven that he can stand in there with the best of them and take the hits; then hit back with as much or more ferocity. Yet, despite the attacks against him, Rudy remained consistent on the issues, regardless of whether or not we agreed with him. I admire this side of Rudy Giuliani.
I think Rudy would have cleaned Hillary’s clock in the general election, and he probably stood the best chance against Obama because of his toughness and grit.
As a president, Rudy would be terrific on national security and foreign policy. He would draw a line in the sand and keep it there. He could weather the storms of criticism against him. I think, too, that Rudy would have kept his word about appointing only strict constructionist, conservative judges to the U.S. Supreme Court. The reason why I believe this is because Rudy is not a flip-flopper; he’s consistent and follows through. I think that if Rudy says he will do something, then we can believe him.
But all these virtues aside, perhaps the republicans are better off without Rudy, whose failed primary strategy could have set him up for failure in the general election. What the republicans don’t need is a guy who plays the averages with votes. When you do this, you risk (1) becoming an obscured candidate, and (2) offending many other voters who feel you don’t think much about them or their state. He is not likely to do very well on Super Tuesday for both of these reasons.
Well, Rudy, look on the bright side: You’ll have plenty of time to correct all of your campaign mistakes this year—four years, to be exact. Good luck.