Wrong about McCain, right about Romney

Okay, so I was wrong about Sen. John McCain and New Hampshire. The pundits and pollsters were right, and I was wrong. So sue me.
But just because the Arizona senator won the Granite State right on cue doesn’t give him the republican presidential nomination by any means. McCain has historically done well in the Northeast during past presidential bids, because of his moderate standing in the party. He beat George W. Bush there in 2000. But Bush is completing his second term in office; not McCain.
I forecast Mitt Romney to be the gold medalist in New Hampshire. Turns out, the former Massachusetts governor claimed the silver instead. He was also runner-up in Iowa, a state he was not expected to do very well in at all. Furthermore, he won Wyoming’s uncovered primary this month as well.
Although Romney has not won any of the media-heavy states yet, by all accounts he remains the republican candidate to beat in 2008; neither Huckabee, nor McCain—in spite of the fact that they have taken two of the highest profile primaries.
Romney has what McCain does not have: the look, the personality, the charisma, the charm and the swagger of a president. Compared to Romney, McCain is a fuddy-duddy. Seeing the two together reminds me of George Bailey and old man Henry J. Potter from “It’s a Wonderful Life.” Just as everybody liked George, Mitt is a likable candidate.
As I recall, nobody liked Potter except for Potter.
There is also something genuine about the way Romney speaks. When he talks, his words sound sincere rather than scripted. They dare you to believe in them.
McCain, on the other hand, sounds like the wiley and seasoned politician that he is. His words are heavy on rhetoric and light on genuine believability. His words taste like the same-old-thing, instead of a new flavor full of freshness, optimism and idealism that the GOP desperately needs and republican voters are so thirsty for.
Romney speaks plainly and matter-of-factly in a way that the average person can understand and appreciate. He is real and believable.
McCain, on the contrary, is too well versed in Beltway verbage to really connect with and relate to the common man. The cynics, skeptics and pessimists amongst us have grown too weary any more of the Washington, D.C., dinosaurs who aspire to higher office. To the hard-lined conservatives like me, we are wise to McCain and his ilk. We know that he is a mover and a shaker in Beltway politics. He’s a deal-maker who is more likely to sell the GOP conservative base up the river in order to keep the peace in Washington; just as both the Bushes have done.
Romney is more of an outsider to Washington politics, even though he comes from a political family and is himself an experienced politician.
Don’t get me wrong: I’m as weary of Romney as I am of McCain, Huckabee and most of the rest of the republican field. There are things about him that cause butterflies to stir in my stomach—not his religion, for the record.
Rather, he has a history of flip-flopping on key republican issues, such as gun control and abortion. He may even be more moderate than conservatives like me would prefer. After all, he got himself elected governor of the most liberal state in the union. Romney is a neo-con, to be sure. He’s not the traditional conservative that I am or that many long-time GOP faithful are.
But he exudes confidence and optimism that is Reagan-esque. Of course, so does Huckabee. But the latter is using his faith as leverage to garner votes among GOP voters, a move that I, quite frankly, resent and find distasteful. We are supposed to be electing a president, not a religious leader. A man’s faith is a fine thing, to be sure. And it speaks well of his character and compass. But the oval office, by design, is supposed to be a place of business; not worship.
Romney, by contrast, knows that his Mormon faith can be a stumbling block for him with many GOP voters, who, by and large, identify themselves as protestant, evangelical Christians. He is careful not to use his faith as a tool to win votes, because he knows it just won’t work for him. Instead, he identifies himself with his faith as part of who he is. It is part of the bigger picture of Mitt Romney and what guides his decisions. Frankly, I admire someone who is comfortable enough in his own skin to not peddle his religion in an effort to win votes.
Romney probably will not win South Carolina. That one will go to either Huckabee or McCain, by virtue of their appeal to southern voters. However, Michigan is Romney’s home state and he is expected to show very strong there. In fact, depending on how Michigan goes for Romney, he may be able to take much of the Great Lakes region from McCain. Nevada is a strong possibility for either of them, with a solid southwest and Mormon connection there.
But please, please do not forget about former New York City Mayor Rudolph “Rudy” Giuliani, who has been sitting back in the shadows watching the last two major primaries unfold. He didn’t do well in either of them, and he did not expect to. Instead, Rudy is focusing on New York, Florida, Pennsylvania, California, probably Ohio, Illinois and Texas—the bigger fish where raw primary votes are concerned. Many in the media have been expecting Rudy to cash in his chips and leave the table after the first two primaries. Strange that he has not. Why? Because he’s waiting to compete for much larger stakes. The guy is a high stakes gambler, who is not afraid to take some hits before he starts playing for keeps. I’ve said from the beginning that I admire Rudy’s toughness and grit. Furthermore, he obviously has the financial backing enough to let the first few primaries go by without so much as a twitch in his eye.
I continue to stand by my prediction that the GOP nod will go to either Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani; the latter of which stands the best chance against Hillary or Obama, because he has the sand that I just don’t detect from the other republican candidates. While I part ways with Rudy on some social and Constitutional issues, I would cast my vote for him before I would even think about voting for either Hillary or Obama.
So, those of you who have jumped on the Huckabee and McCain bandwagons had better be prepared for a short ride, because when the buckboard stops, it will stop cold.